Montag, 25. September 2017
Quo vadis Bundestag?
jonhughes, 21:30h
The day after the German electorate voted 33% for CDU/CSU (-9%), 21% for SPD (-5%), 13% for AfD, 11% for FDP (+6%), 9% for Bundnis90/Die Grünen (+0.5%) and 9% for Die Linke (+0.5%), a few things seem clear:
1. The SPD must go into Opposion
2. Die Grünen must refuse to take part in a coalition with CDU/CSU/FDP, and
3. Merkel must resign and new elections must be held
1. SPD as the parliamentary Opposition
It is rare for a junior coalition party to profit from the liason, the horrific example being the Tory/LibDem coalition under David Cameron: the LibDem's helped the Tories - their voracious natural enemy - to power in the hope of forcing them to introduce Proportional Representation, with the result that Cameron said "No!" and chose the perfect moment to call an Election, in which he achieved an absolute majority and the LibDem's were returned to obscurity, probably forever. Having been silly enough to enter a coalition under Merkel in 2005, the SPD promptly lost the following election in 2009, only to make the same mistake again in 2013. What would happen to the SPD in 2017 was pretty obvious then, and look what's happened! What the SPD need to do now is to start thinking about how they can save themselves from the fate of the LidDem's in England. In contrast to them, however, the SPD has every chanceof achieving this because of the German system of Proportional Representation. With that in place, even the horrific gerrymandering (electoral district re-allocation) activities of the Republicans in the USA would have no effect on the distribution of seats in the Bundestag. The SPD has still to recover from, firstly, Schröder's schism with Lafonaine at the start of the Rot-Grün government in 1998 which lead to the formation of Die Linke and, secondly, from the subsequent Agenda 2010 which miraculously revived the German economy (and thus probably the EU and beyond too, despite Merkel's disastrous refugee "policy"). These two political events are intimately connected, of course, providing a problem for the SPD independelty of Merkel, namely that the party found it impossible to make clear to the voters – in particular those at the bottom of the packing order – how things would look like today if the Agenda policies hadn't been introduced. Instead of trumpeting the success of its incredibly brave (one might say, suicidal) political decision in 1998, the SPD did little other than apologize for the apparent down side of Agenda 2010, while trying to position their Minimum Wage, pensions at 63, funding for geriatric care etc. (all achieved in the past few years despite the CDU/CSU!) as a little "Sorry!" notice during the election campaign. How embarrassing! – but the question remains: how will the SPD now square the circle? Alternatively, the SPD might decide to forget about the Agenda entirely: but what then is on offer for the future? More workers' participation in boardrooms, more women in boardrooms, more tax for boardroom members?
One the other hand, it indeed behoves the SPD to take over the role of the Opposition in the Bundestag because if they didn't, the role would be taken by the AfD. But when they are in Opposition, they also need someone who can put fire into a debate. Gabriel can do that (but his political star has fallen below the horizon, not that it ever was very bright), Gysi would have been perfect (if he weren't in a different party and it were 1994 instead of 2017), Steinbrook could have done it (but he didn't even stand for election this time).
2. Bundnis90/Die Grünen must refuse to take part in a coalition with CDU/CSU/FDP
Having seen what happens in coalitions with natural enemies (see 1 above), it would seem perfectly obvious that any idea the political pundits might have regarding CDU/CSU/FDP/Grünen being the only option* is just silly. Die Grünen might have won the environmental argument, but the other side of that coin is that the other parties have adopted these ideas in their programs. That makes it possible for die Grünen to enter into a coalition with anyone – but then the problem will arise that they will lose what little remains of their political individuality, namely that of a protest party. The other direction would be for the machos Lindner (FDP) and Cem Özdemir (die Grünen), to extend their close personal friendship to their parties. But that really would be the end for die Grünen.
3. Merkel must resign and call a new election
Having made at least two huge political mistakes (destroying the consensus reached by Rot/Grün with the electricity corporations to end nuclear power, only to revive it again a year later; opening the boaders to a million refugees without knowing what to do with them and without realizing that it might destroy not only CDU/CSU but also the EU) thereby losing 9% in popularity, it would appear obvious that it's time to go. Her purpose of being in power has never been very clear to me as she either directs policy very badly or not at all. She presented no political program and actively avoided political discussion during the election campaign, even after supposedly winning a TV duel refusing to take part in another. She learned her politics from Helmut Kohl: sit out political problems and cancel your rivals. In the end Kohl had no politics worth mentioning and no better successor than Merkel herself.
And that's her problem too. There is no one in the CDU to take over. Von der Leyen was cancelled with the help of the Defence Ministry, Maizière even sounds like Kohl's Volker Ruhe and is about as politically attractive, and that's about it except perhaps Schäuble who will be 75 next year. A CSU politician can't honestly fulfil the constitutional role of Chancellor and remain true to the "Bavaria first" party, and anyway CSU candidates have always failed. They were doing well with zu Guttenberg though until he was exposed a trickster and went underground in the USA, at least until recently (watch this space...).
Well, Merkel could step to one side and leave the rest to the democratic process – even if that's not how the CDU/CSU works. At least it would seem quite pointless for her to try to form a new coalition with the natural enemies FDP and die Grünen - unless the idea would be to block all political progress (sounds familiar somehow). In fact, the time would seem to be perfect to call a new election, now that the AfD have torn themselves in half within 15 hours of the voting stations closing.
*Alternativlos, as Merkel would say. With Thatcher it was the TINA Doctrine, "there is no alternative".
1. The SPD must go into Opposion
2. Die Grünen must refuse to take part in a coalition with CDU/CSU/FDP, and
3. Merkel must resign and new elections must be held
1. SPD as the parliamentary Opposition
It is rare for a junior coalition party to profit from the liason, the horrific example being the Tory/LibDem coalition under David Cameron: the LibDem's helped the Tories - their voracious natural enemy - to power in the hope of forcing them to introduce Proportional Representation, with the result that Cameron said "No!" and chose the perfect moment to call an Election, in which he achieved an absolute majority and the LibDem's were returned to obscurity, probably forever. Having been silly enough to enter a coalition under Merkel in 2005, the SPD promptly lost the following election in 2009, only to make the same mistake again in 2013. What would happen to the SPD in 2017 was pretty obvious then, and look what's happened! What the SPD need to do now is to start thinking about how they can save themselves from the fate of the LidDem's in England. In contrast to them, however, the SPD has every chanceof achieving this because of the German system of Proportional Representation. With that in place, even the horrific gerrymandering (electoral district re-allocation) activities of the Republicans in the USA would have no effect on the distribution of seats in the Bundestag. The SPD has still to recover from, firstly, Schröder's schism with Lafonaine at the start of the Rot-Grün government in 1998 which lead to the formation of Die Linke and, secondly, from the subsequent Agenda 2010 which miraculously revived the German economy (and thus probably the EU and beyond too, despite Merkel's disastrous refugee "policy"). These two political events are intimately connected, of course, providing a problem for the SPD independelty of Merkel, namely that the party found it impossible to make clear to the voters – in particular those at the bottom of the packing order – how things would look like today if the Agenda policies hadn't been introduced. Instead of trumpeting the success of its incredibly brave (one might say, suicidal) political decision in 1998, the SPD did little other than apologize for the apparent down side of Agenda 2010, while trying to position their Minimum Wage, pensions at 63, funding for geriatric care etc. (all achieved in the past few years despite the CDU/CSU!) as a little "Sorry!" notice during the election campaign. How embarrassing! – but the question remains: how will the SPD now square the circle? Alternatively, the SPD might decide to forget about the Agenda entirely: but what then is on offer for the future? More workers' participation in boardrooms, more women in boardrooms, more tax for boardroom members?
One the other hand, it indeed behoves the SPD to take over the role of the Opposition in the Bundestag because if they didn't, the role would be taken by the AfD. But when they are in Opposition, they also need someone who can put fire into a debate. Gabriel can do that (but his political star has fallen below the horizon, not that it ever was very bright), Gysi would have been perfect (if he weren't in a different party and it were 1994 instead of 2017), Steinbrook could have done it (but he didn't even stand for election this time).
2. Bundnis90/Die Grünen must refuse to take part in a coalition with CDU/CSU/FDP
Having seen what happens in coalitions with natural enemies (see 1 above), it would seem perfectly obvious that any idea the political pundits might have regarding CDU/CSU/FDP/Grünen being the only option* is just silly. Die Grünen might have won the environmental argument, but the other side of that coin is that the other parties have adopted these ideas in their programs. That makes it possible for die Grünen to enter into a coalition with anyone – but then the problem will arise that they will lose what little remains of their political individuality, namely that of a protest party. The other direction would be for the machos Lindner (FDP) and Cem Özdemir (die Grünen), to extend their close personal friendship to their parties. But that really would be the end for die Grünen.
3. Merkel must resign and call a new election
Having made at least two huge political mistakes (destroying the consensus reached by Rot/Grün with the electricity corporations to end nuclear power, only to revive it again a year later; opening the boaders to a million refugees without knowing what to do with them and without realizing that it might destroy not only CDU/CSU but also the EU) thereby losing 9% in popularity, it would appear obvious that it's time to go. Her purpose of being in power has never been very clear to me as she either directs policy very badly or not at all. She presented no political program and actively avoided political discussion during the election campaign, even after supposedly winning a TV duel refusing to take part in another. She learned her politics from Helmut Kohl: sit out political problems and cancel your rivals. In the end Kohl had no politics worth mentioning and no better successor than Merkel herself.
And that's her problem too. There is no one in the CDU to take over. Von der Leyen was cancelled with the help of the Defence Ministry, Maizière even sounds like Kohl's Volker Ruhe and is about as politically attractive, and that's about it except perhaps Schäuble who will be 75 next year. A CSU politician can't honestly fulfil the constitutional role of Chancellor and remain true to the "Bavaria first" party, and anyway CSU candidates have always failed. They were doing well with zu Guttenberg though until he was exposed a trickster and went underground in the USA, at least until recently (watch this space...).
Well, Merkel could step to one side and leave the rest to the democratic process – even if that's not how the CDU/CSU works. At least it would seem quite pointless for her to try to form a new coalition with the natural enemies FDP and die Grünen - unless the idea would be to block all political progress (sounds familiar somehow). In fact, the time would seem to be perfect to call a new election, now that the AfD have torn themselves in half within 15 hours of the voting stations closing.
*Alternativlos, as Merkel would say. With Thatcher it was the TINA Doctrine, "there is no alternative".
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